The terrifying idea that decreasing fertility will cause nations to vanish – Georgios Ardavanis (Ph.D.)

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For years, specialists in numerous countries have delineated the demographic challenge. As we all know, the population is aging and birth rates are dropping. Social and economic variables make the issue worse. Reversing the trend will require several decades. Of course, this caused the experts to develop a difficult case because there is a strong likelihood that the current state of affairs will remain the same. When will the last Italian, German, or Greek be born if birth rates keep falling at the same pace they have been falling for the last 20 years and if the rate at which the mortality rate changes stays the same?

Specialists from the Italian Institute European House Ambrosetti did the computation. The last Italian is predicted to be born in 2225 and pass away almost a century later in the apocalyptic scenario set in Italy. As a result, the country of Italy will vanish in roughly 100 years. This fact indicates that there will be no turning back the sharp population fall in the ensuing decades. South Korea, Ukraine, China, Cuba, Poland, and Japan are among the countries advocating for a sharp reduction in population in the upcoming decades.

Based on a combination of life expectancy and birth rate, certain analyses conclude that Japan has the highest likelihood of experiencing a demographic collapse. The fact that economic level and fertility are unrelated is another intriguing aspect for the experts in this scenario. Wealth does not equate to increased fertility. Thus, it is shown that there are several reasons associated with the demographic problem. Parenthood is viewed by 55% of Italian women as a barrier to entering or remaining in the workforce, which is characteristic in this regard.

Experts also emphasize the need for swift policy adoption, beginning with medically assisted reproduction and extending to immigration, in order to start reaping the benefits as early as feasible in the future—that is, from the next generation. However, the global population is growing at the same time. There are 8.05 billion people on Earth today; By 2050, that number will rise to 9.675 billion. The management of migration, resources, and the ecosystem will face new difficulties as a result of this growth.

The highest birth rates are also recorded in some of the poorest countries, such as Chad and Somalia. In essence, these are new generations of immigrant flows, the Italian Institute observes in its report, while at the same time pointing out in its report that the Italian government must immediately increase to 250,000 the number of immigrants it will accept each year. That is, Italy must look for that mixture that will turn the crisis into an opportunity long before the last Italian is born.


Georgios Ardavanis – 16/10/2023

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